Manila: Think-tank Stratbase Institute rejected claims made by the Chinese Embassy in Manila that millions of Filipinos would lose their jobs should Philippine-Chinese diplomatic relations sour.
According to Philippines News Agency, Stratbase, in a Facebook post late Sunday night, said the assertion is not supported by official economic data from the Philippine government. Per the latest data coming from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows from China for the period January to November 2025 amounted to USD3.10 million, or 52.43 percent lower than the USD6.52 million recorded during the same period in 2024. The inflows represented only 0.27 percent of total FDI received by the Philippines.
"In 2024, China accounted for just 0.55 percent of total net FDI inflows. This continues a steady downward trend in China's investment share, which declined from 12.04 percent in 2019 to just over one percent in 2023, before falling further in 2024. The data clearly indicate that China currently plays a relatively minor role in overall FDI inflows to the Philippines," Stratbase said.
The think-tank added China also lags behind other countries in terms of approved but unrealized investment commitments. Data recently released by the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that in 2025, Chinese investment pledges amounted to PHP10.25 billion, or just 3.76 percent of the total PHP272.58 billion in pledges received by the Philippines.
While Chinese investment commitments surged during the administration of former president Rodrigo R. Duterte, rising from PHP2.33 billion in 2017 to PHP50.69 billion in 2018 and peaking at PHP88.67 billion that represented 22.7 percent of total pledges in 2019, the commitments fell sharply to PHP15.59 billion in 2020 amid the Covid-19 pandemic and global lockdowns. Since then, Chinese pledges have remained comparatively low.
At the same time, Stratbase said the Philippines faces structural vulnerabilities, particularly a widening trade deficit largely driven by imports from China. "While China is often cited as among the country's top trading partner(s), the relationship is heavily skewed toward imports. This persistent and expanding imbalance, especially after former President Duterte's pivot toward Beijing in 2019, heightened dependence on foreign goods, increased exposure to supply chain disruptions and put pressure on the country's balance of payments," it added.
Taken together, Stratbase said government data showed that China's contribution to Philippine investment inflows is limited, while trade relations remain structurally imbalanced. "Claims that diplomatic strain would automatically lead to catastrophic job losses are therefore exaggerated and not supported by empirical evidence," it noted.
