Manila: The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced on Wednesday a 74-percent probability that a weak La Niña will develop between December and January. Ana Solis, chief of PAGASA’s climate monitoring and prediction section, stated that La Niña-like conditions are currently prevailing in the Tropical Pacific, and the alert for La Niña remains in effect.

According to Philippines News Agency, the weak La Niña is expected to persist until the first quarter of 2025, though a full-blown La Niña is not anticipated at this time. Solis explained that December’s rainfall forecast indicates near to above normal levels, particularly affecting the eastern section of the country. This increase will be driven by various weather systems such as the northeast monsoon, potential tropical cyclones, and localized thunderstorms.

Looking ahead to January, similar rainfall patterns are forecasted, especially in the Bicol region and Eastern Visayas, as well as parts of Mimar
opa and Southern Luzon. The anticipated rainfall will likely be influenced by a low-pressure area, a potential tropical cyclone, and the intertropical convergence zone, Solis noted.

Additionally, Solis mentioned the possibility of one to two tropical cyclones occurring in December, with expectations of two to eight tropical cyclones affecting the country from December through May.