Manila: There is a 53 to 58 percent probability of La Ni±a conditions developing in the country, the weather bureau said Wednesday. In a Bagong Pilipinas Ngayon interview, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Chief Ana Liza Solis stated that the country is likely to experience a short-lived, weak La Ni±a, rather than a full-blown event that usually lasts six months or longer.
According to Philippines News Agency, Solis explained that the usual probability of La Ni±a around this time of the year is around 30 percent, a percentage significant enough for La Ni±a conditions to occur. The phenomenon could bring more tropical cyclones forming within or near the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Moreover, the temperature of the ocean’s surface nearest to the country rises, making the country prone to moisture-laden weather systems like storms, low pressure areas, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and shear lines that result in more rain than usual in several parts of the country starting in September.
Areas anticipated to receive higher-than-usual rainfall include the Cordillera Administrative Region, Region 2 (Cagayan Valley), Central Luzon, and Region 4-B (Mimaropa). By October, November, and December, there is a high chance of heavy rains in Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, the Bicol Region, and the Visayas, mostly Eastern Visayas as well as Central Visayas, including the Davao Region, Zamboanga Peninsula, Caraga, and Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.
Local government units and disaster risk reduction offices are urged to preposition resources, closely monitor weather updates, and prepare communities in vulnerable areas, as floods and landslides are possible in these regions. Solis noted that historically, landfalling and land-crossing storms are more frequent during the last quarter of the year. While not all cyclones may bring destructive winds, many are expected to be rain-heavy and could interact with other weather systems such as the southwest monsoon (habagat), northeast monsoon (amihan), shear line, ITCZ, and low-pressure areas.
